ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has warned that planned marches and sit-ins could cause losses of up to Rs120 billion a day to Pakistan’s economy, saying prolonged disruption could undermine the country’s efforts to move from economic stability towards sustainable growth.
His remarks came as opposition parties, including Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), announced separate protest campaigns against the government.
PTI has announced a protest movement for September 27, with demands including the release of party founder Imran Khan and the upholding of constitutional supremacy and the rule of law.
JI, meanwhile, has announced a march on Islamabad over the petroleum development levy and rising fuel prices.
In a message on Sunday, Aurangzeb said such protests were difficult to understand at a time when Pakistan had made efforts to stabilise the economy.
He said disruption to economic activity could adversely affect the country’s transition from economic stability towards growth, exports and investment.
The finance minister said Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had reached $21.4 billion, describing the figure as the highest level in the country’s history.
He said the government was reducing expenditure, while the fiscal deficit had declined significantly and the current account had moved into surplus.
Aurangzeb said remittances were continuing to rise and exports were also showing positive trends, expressing hope that economic growth would accelerate further.
He said GDP growth stood at 3.7% during the last financial year and was expected to exceed 4% during the current fiscal year.
The minister said large-scale manufacturing was recovering, while corporate profits and investment activity in the stock market had also increased.
According to Aurangzeb, 11 initial public offerings were conducted during the last financial year compared with five in the first two months of the current fiscal year, which he described as an indication of growing confidence in the business and investment environment.
He said the government had set a goods export target of $32.9 billion for the current year and expected exports to increase by around 6%.
Aurangzeb said average daily exports were around $90 million and warned that, in a worst-case scenario, strikes could reduce daily exports by up to half.
He added that IT exports and services were expected to increase from $4.6 billion to $5.5 billion, while IT exports had reached around $811 million during the first two months of the current fiscal year.
The finance minister also warned that disruptions to internet connectivity could severely affect the IT sector, noting that exports had suffered losses of up to 80% during previous worst-case scenarios.
Aurangzeb estimated that the services sector could suffer losses of around Rs86 billion per day in the event of major disruption, while the industrial sector could face losses of approximately Rs25 billion.
He put potential revenue losses at around Rs17 billion per day, taking the estimated overall economic loss to approximately Rs120 billion a day.
The minister said the immediate impact of such disruption would be felt by ordinary citizens and daily-wage workers, while small shopkeepers and businesses would also face financial difficulties.
Aurangzeb said tax revenues had increased by around 40% over the past two years and Pakistan had attracted $311 million in foreign direct investment during the current period.
He said economic stability was essential for attracting foreign investment and that investor confidence needed to be strengthened further.
The finance minister also highlighted challenges arising from the situation in the Middle East, saying disruptions were affecting global trade through supply-chain problems as well as higher freight and insurance costs.
Aurangzeb called for economic stability and the momentum of growth to be protected, saying political and economic issues should be resolved through negotiations and consensus.